TCU football head coach Gary Patterson said he was grateful for the opportunity to play in the Peach Bowl after a CFP snub. But his team played Ole Miss like they were in the national championship game, not the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.
The Horned Frogs didn’t just beat the Rebels: they destroyed them.
A month ago, in a Peach Bowl preview on TCU News Now, I said TCU needed to:
1. Put pressure on Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace to force turnovers
2. Have quarterback Trevone Boykin play one of his best games of the year
I was right about the first statement, but the Horned Frogs’ defense did more than pressure Wallace – they suffocated him.
The Frogs sacked Wallace five times, picked him off three times and held him to a 43 percent completion percentage, with Wallace finishing the game with a quarterback rating of 1.2. To add insult to injury, the Frogs flashed the Rebels’ signature “land shark” hand sign in the faces of their opponents whenever TCU made a big play on defense.
But I was wrong about the second prediction. Boykin played decently but the Peach Bowl definitely wasn’t his best game of the season. Boykin threw three touchdowns, but he also threw three interceptions and had just 187 yards passing.
Even though the defense played its best game of the season and Boykin faltered, the Peach Bowl was both a microcosm of the 2014 season and a preview of what TCU fans can expect to see in 2015.
The 2014 football script
With the exception of three games this season, all of TCU’s games have followed the same script: The Frogs go up early, they dominate on defense and they win convincingly.
The three games where TCU did not dominate start to finish were against Baylor, West Virginia and Kansas.
While the Mountaineers and the Jayhawks played well against the Frogs, the weather contributed to the closer-than-expected results.
I know, it sounds like I’m making excuses, but it’s hard to run the Air Raid offense in sub-40 degree, windy, rainy and snowy weather. And it’s really hard for a game not to be closer than expected when your opponent is converting third-and-longs and scoring touchdowns as a result of tipped passes, preventable fumbles and untimely penalties. I’m talking about you, Kansas.
Yes, TCU should have beaten those teams by wider margins, but Kansas and West Virginia weren’t close because TCU “collapsed” or was being “exposed.” It’s just hard to throw a football when it’s cold, wet and windy.
The closeness of the West Virginia and the Kansas games didn’t help the Horned Frogs make their case to the CFP committee.
But the Baylor loss hurt more.
TCU gave up 24 unanswered points to Baylor in the final 11 minutes after leading the Bears by 21 points. The collapse has been credited to changes made to defensive play calling, questionable pass interference calls and Baylor’s offense being really good. Any way you slice it, TCU blew a 21-point lead and lost, and because they lost, they did not make the CFP.
The memories of the Baylor loss and the playoff committee’s final decision were in the Frogs’ heads on New Year’s Eve, and the memories will continue to linger next season as many of last year’s starters return in 2015.
An experienced offense, a fresh defense
Next year, TCU will lose starting offensive tackle Tayo Fabuluje and wide receiver David Porter, who had 39 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns. Those are the only two key players who will leave a TCU offense that ranked seventh in total yards and third in scoring.
Leading the way for the Horned Frog offense in 2015 will be Heisman Trophy candidate Trevone Boykin. The junior will still have his primary target Josh Doctson, who caught one-third of Boykin’s touchdown passes. TCU also carries over 12 wide receivers who caught passes in 2014 into the 2015 season.
The Horned Frogs will also be deep at running back.
TCU returns its top four running backs: Aaron Green, B.J. Catalon, Trevorris Johnson and Kyle Hicks. Catalon was hurt and did not play in TCU’s last five games. Neck and head injuries could sideline Catalon next season, but there is the possibility that he returns to the Frogs’ backfield next season. Also, former Rivals 4-star prospect Shaun Nixon may become a part of the Frogs’ ground game in 2015.
By looking at the number of returning players and last season’s statistics, it seems like the Frogs’ offense should be back in full-force next season, but the defense will deal with attrition.
In 2015, TCU will cope with the loss of its three best linebackers as it loses Jonathan Anderson, Marcus Mallet and Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Paul Dawson to graduation. While replacing three seniors will be difficult, Gary Patterson is one of the best at developing young linebackers. But Patterson will have a lot of work to do: sophomore Sammy Douglas will be the only returning upperclassmen next year, as the other five returning linebackers are freshmen.
The defense also loses three of its best defensive backs.
All-Big 12 cornerback Kevin White and safety Sam Carter are graduating seniors, and junior Chris Hackett recently declared for the NFL Draft. Last season, the TCU defense led the nation in interceptions with 26 picks. The three departing defensive backs accounted for half of those interceptions. With much of the secondary leaving, redshirt freshman cornerback Ranthony Texada and junior safety Derrick Kindred will have to improve next year in order to replicate last year’s success.
While TCU loses some of its best defensive backs and linebackers, the defensive line will be more experienced. Patterson will have to find a replacement for starting defensive tackle Chucky Hunter, who made 9.5 tackles for loss last year. Though Hunter was a big part of last year’s stout defensive front, TCU returns the remainder of its defensive line.
It’s very possible that TCU’s defense will rely heavily on its big guys up front. With a young secondary and an almost entirely new linebacking corps, getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks and limiting the opponent’s run game is essential for TCU’s defense to keep its reputation as one of the nation’s best.
A strenuous schedule
While it seems that next season’s inexperienced defense should be a major concern, it isn’t the Frogs’ only obstacle: their 2015 schedule also presents a challenge.
TCU left the state of Texas twice last season to play Kansas and West Virginia. In 2015, the Horned Frogs will travel to Minnesota, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Kansas State.
Not only do the Frogs have to play in those hostile environments against tough opponents, they will now be treated as the reigning Big 12 champions. As much as the Horned Frogs want to prove themselves to the playoff committee, the teams they face on the road this year will be hungry to avenge last season’s humiliating defeats in Fort Worth.
Although the 2015 schedule looks tougher in some respects, TCU should be favored to win all of its games. The Frogs may very well find themselves atop multiple preseason rankings before their matchup against Minnesota. And if you look at the rest of the Big 12, no other team looks too intimidating other than the Bryce Petty-less Baylor Bears.
If TCU stays healthy next season and its inexperienced defense quickly adjusts, the Frogs could run the table and find themselves in the CFP. But that’s a lot to ask for a team that will be playing some of its toughest games on the road.
When TCU was still a member of the Mountain West, they lost two games because its defense got burned by rivals Baylor and SMU. The Horned Frogs finished that season with an 11-2 record, a year after the undefeated Rose Bowl-winning season.
In 2011, TCU had one of the nation’s top offenses but they also had one of the worst defenses in recent Horned Frog history, which resulted in a disappointing Poinsettia Bowl berth.
Unlike the 2011 season, the Frogs return almost their entire offense, including star quarterback Boykin and elite wide receiver Doctson. Andy Dalton didn’t have the chance to avenge the 2010 team’s national championship exclusion.
But Boykin and the other nine returning starters on offense could get that opportunity, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they succeed.
