PolitiFrog

Opinion: Beto won’t beat Ted in senate race

By Hank Fitzgerald

Published Mar 20, 2018

More than 300 ministers and religious leaders from around the U.S. gathered at TCU this week to explore contemporary issues within the religious community.The event, begun in Texas in 1888, was first held at TCU in 1944. Now, Minister’s Week is held in cities around the U.S. The Brite Divinity School, the TCU religion department and University Christian Church sponsored the events throughout the week.

If you never left our little corner of Fort Worth, also known as the “TCU Bubble,” it might seem as though the outcome of the US senate race in Texas has already been decided. Buttons on backpacks, stickers on laptops and cardboard signs in front yards in the surrounding neighborhoods all announce the same conclusion– “Beto for Texas.”

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Beto won’t win Nov. 6. Sorry.

Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic representative of Texas’ 16^th congressional district, is riding a new wave of enthusiasm in Texas. The turnout in the recent Democratic primary was up 84 percent higher than the last midterm cycle in 2014 with over 1 million votes– the first time Texas Democrats have reached that figure since 2002.

We’re going to do this the right way — taking our direction from the people of Texas, from every walk of life, to do the important, ambitious work that the country is waiting for.https://t.co/DCmtyrOr9J

— Beto O’Rourke (@BetoORourke) March 7, 2018

O’Rourke also beat sitting senator Ted Cruz in fundraising in the first six weeks of 2018 by $1.5 million. If you are a Cruz supporter, you already knew this fact due to the weekly emails from the Cruz campaign urging you to donate because “We’re losing.”

However, in spite of all this energy, all this fundraising, when the votes are cast this November Cruz will be the winner.

Even with the recent surge, turnout in the Texas Republican primary still beats that of the Democratic primary by 500,000 votes. Ted Cruz won 85 percent of those roughly 1.5 million voters, while Beto, on the other hand, only won 61 percent of his smaller electorate.

I am deeply grateful that Republicans in Texas turned out and put their confidence in me to continue leading the fight for Texas values in Washington. Now let’s get to work to #KeepTexasRed: https://t.co/KFJyfLRjvi pic.twitter.com/KLzF1HdC2D

— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) March 7, 2018

While the Cruz campaign sends out emails, letters and phone calls telling his supporters that they are losing the fundraising battle, Cruz still has an advantage over O’Rourke in total dollars raised.

Boring facts and figures aside, incumbent candidates like Cruz tend to win elections in which they run. As an incumbent, Cruz has better name recognition, a stronger fundraising infrastructure and is generally a more seasoned political actor.